Report
Patrick Artus

Even if the long-term interest rate remains lower than the growth rate, there is a limit to the fiscal deficit

When the long-term interest rate is lower than the GDP growth rate, the public debt ratio dynamics is stable (the public debt ratio converges towards a limit value and does not diverge as it would if the interest rate were higher than the growth rate). The implication is that a stable public debt ratio in the long term ensures fiscal solvency at all times. But even a public debt ratio that is stable in the long term can have a maximum value. Keeping within the bounds of this limit requires that: Total fiscal deficit < Maximum public debt ratio × Nominal growth rate Or, equivalently: Primary fiscal deficit < Maximum public debt ratio × (Nominal growth rate - Long term interest rate) There is therefore a limit to the fiscal deficit even if the long-term interest rate is lower than the growth rate. We estimate the tightness of this constraint for large OECD countries.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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