Report
Excess demand for goods and services or excess supply of goods and services in the euro zone?
According to the survey of factors limiting production, the euro zone was in a situation of excess supply of goods and services (insufficient demand) from 2010 to 2016 and in 2020 (due to COVID). It was in a situation of excess demand for goods and services (insufficient supply) from 2016 to 2023, with the exception of 2020. The question is whether the euro zone could slip back into a regime of insufficient demand for goods, with zero growth in 2023 and very probably weak growth in 2024. When comparing growth and potential growth, we see that growth will probably be 0.5 percentage point lower than potential growth in 2023 and probably close to potential growth in 2024. We believe that this catch-up in the supply of goods and services relative to demand for goods and services will be insufficient to return the euro zone to a regime of excess supply of goods and services.
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Natixis
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