Report
Patrick Artus

Exchange rate depreciation destroys growth nowadays, but many governments and central banks have not understood this

Recent examples of sharp exchange rate depreciation (Japan in 2013, euro zone in 2014, United Kingdom in 2016) show that in contemporary economies, exchange rate depreciation reduces growth. The explanation is that the stimulatory effect of foreign trade in volume terms is outweighed by the decline in domestic demand caused by imported inflation and the resulting loss of real income. Yet most governments and central banks (except perhaps in China) still believe that currency depreciation is good for growth, and try to prevent their currencies form appreciating. This helps maintain very expansionary monetary policies. For example, if the United States wants to weaken the dollar, and the ECB does not want to raise interest rates until the Federal Reserve has done so, at equilibrium neither of them raises interest rates.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch