Exchange rate policy: The cost of trying to support industry by weakening the exchange rate is high
Many countries (United States, euro zone, possibly China) want to support their manufacturing industry with a weak (depreciated) exchange rate. But this “industrialist†policy entails a high cost, because: The price elasticities of exports and imports in volume terms are low. A depreciation of the exchange rate therefore does not do much to improve the situation of industry; A depreciation of the exchange rate reduces a country’s real income due to the increase in import prices, and this second effect outweighs the improvement in foreign trade in volume terms, leading to a loss of GDP. The countries that try to weaken their exchange rates to improve the situation of their industry must therefore have a strong preference for industry, since they are willing to pay a high cost (in the form of a loss of income due to the deterioration in the terms of trade) to support their industry.