Report
Patrick Artus

Expansionary monetary policy drives down long-term interest rates in OECD countries and pushes them higher in emerging countries

There is a key difference between the effects of monetary policy in OECD and emerging countries: In OECD countries, monetary expansion (growth in the central bank’s balance sheet) has little effect on capital flows and exchange rates; it leads to lower long-term interest rates, which are not disrupted by any exchange rate depreciation or imported inflation; In emerging countries (excluding China), monetary expansion leads to significant capital outflows, sharp exchange rate depreciation and higher long-term interest rates via two mechanisms: a rise in the currency risk premium and a rise in expected inflation due to imported inflation. So emerging countries cannot at all use the same monetary remedies (such as quantitative easing) as in OECD countries .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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