Report
Patrick Artus

Explosion in the quantity of money: Was there another solution?

The massive monetisation of fiscal deficits implemented in 2020 by OECD countries as a result of the COVID crisis will lead to huge growth in the quantity of money. The monetary base (the supply of central bank money) is expected to increase by 70% in 2020. This explosion in the quantity of money will lead to widespread appearance of asset price bubbles, and perhaps even more serious monetary disruption (falling demand for countries' official currencies). Could another policy have been conducted? Given the decline in production as a result of the lockdown and then the new health standards, the massive fiscal deficits that were run up were required to prevent a catastrophic rise in unemployment, poverty and bankruptcies ; Could these fiscal deficits have been financed if they had not been monetised? There are available savings, since the decline in production has given rise to very large forced savings. But would these savings have financed governments without a very significant rise in long-term interest rates if there had been no monetisation? The answer is perhaps yes for the safer countries (United States, core euro-zone countries, Japan, United Kingdom), and probably no for the peripheral euro-zone countries.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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