Natixis - Fading French spillovers on AAA curves: long NETHER 2033 and EU 2034 against DBR 2034

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Natixis

Benoit GERARD

Fading French spillovers on AAA curves: long NETHER 2033 and EU 2034 against DBR 2034

French elections risk warranted some widening of spreads of EGB against Bund, to hedge against unexpected risk and reflecting a market liquidity premium, as much as a convenience yield (aka funding liquidity) increase. Results from the first round of French legislative parliamentary elections seem to support our baseline scenario and should help a tightening of the best rated curves in the EGB / SSA space. We go long EU and Nether against Bund at 90bp s . We target 75bps in a 3-month horizon. We stop at 98bps.

01/07/2024 1 EN

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Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

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Analysts

Benoit GERARD

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Fading French spillovers on AAA curves: long NETHER 2033 and EU 2034 against DBR 2034

Does the Fed really have the equity market’s back?

: US Office Market: have we already reached the bottom?

La Fed en soutien du marché action, vraiment ?

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