Fears of a second wave: What real time indicators say #7

The resumption of activity in Europe continues as containment rules are relaxed and activities that were still prohibited due to health reasons are restarted. Many indicators thus find levels almost similar to those before the crisis. Nevertheless, considerable fears remain, especially outside Europe, due to the resurgence of new cases in the United States and China. The hypothesis of an epidemic wave leading to a new episode of confinement remains a very realistic scenario as shown by the new measures taken in Beijing in recent weeks. In order to analyse the openness of European economies over time, we are adapting the form of our weekly publication. We are now analysing three indicators that have evolved most significantly, showing significant events in terms of high frequency data: Health Restriction Indicators and Global Epidemic Trends: Increase in US Cases with Over 36,000 New People Affected, Sunday, June 21. Mobility reports : in Europe, all countries have returned to a situation similar to that before the crisis . In France, however, the impact remains significant in Ile de France , with an impact in terms of mobility still 20% lower than normal. Deceleration of online retail sales in the four major European countries, from +75% higher than last year in April to +50% in mid-June , offset by the increase in the number of retail and leisure businesses.