Natixis - Fed の利下げ予想を微調整：10 月一時中止の必要なし

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Natixis

Christopher HODGE ...

Jonathan PINGLE

Fed の利下げ予想を微調整：10 月一時中止の必要なし

07/05/2025 1 EN

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Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

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Analysts

Christopher HODGE

Jonathan PINGLE

Other Reports from Natixis

Christopher HODGE ... (+2)

Christopher HODGE
Jonathan PINGLE

FOMC Recap: Waiting for the Dust to Settle

In its May meeting, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) held rates steady at an upper bound of 4.5%, pausing for the third straight meeting after cutting 100bp since September. The official statement noted the increased uncertainty of the economic landscape and risks to both higher inflation and unemployment – an admission that stagflation is a concern . Given the questions about “the scale, scope, timing, and persistence of the tariffs” and their effect on the economy, the Fed will feel content to sit tight until “the appropriate direction becomes clear.”

4h / 12m 4h / 12m 1 EN

Serge Herve NDOUMBÉ SAME

Serge Herve NDOUMBÉ SAME

Schaeffler : Weak Car Market Weighs on Schaeffler Earnings

Schaeffler's Q1 2025 revenue declined by 2.9% to EUR 5.9 billion, impacted by a weak automotive market, particularly in Europe within the Powertrain & Chassis division . E-Mobility showed growth, with strong regional performance in the Americas and Asia/Pacific offsetting European declines. Rising R&D expenses pressured EBITDA, while the EBIT margin remained flat. Free cash flow was negative, though improved year-over-year. Net debt increased, raising leverage concerns. Despite this, liquidity remains strong. While guidance remains optimistic, the report notes the risk of global trade polic...

8h / 59m 8h / 59m 1 EN

Benoit GERARD ... (+3)

Benoit GERARD
Eya CHAMMAKHI
Théophile LEGRAND

Rates Monthly May 2025: De-escalation and reallocation towards EUR?

Following a reassessment of US and EZ macro scenarios, we expect additional rate cuts by the Fed and ECB due to softened US trade stances and concerns about growth. The trend of investment reallocation from the dollar to the euro, and curve steepening potential is being closely monitored. We maintain a bullish perspective on U.S. and EUR rates through the end of Q2, with targets set at 4.0% for the 10Y UST and 2.25% for the Bund 10Y by June. In terms of year-end forecasts, we expect the 10Y UST to reach 4.15% and the 10Y Bund to increase to 2.70%.

10h / 21m 10h / 21m 1 EN

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Fed の利下げ予想を微調整：10 月一時中止の必要なし

FOMC Recap: Waiting for the Dust to Settle

Schaeffler : Weak Car Market Weighs on Schaeffler Earnings

Rates Monthly May 2025: De-escalation and reallocation towards EUR?

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