ECB プレビュー：行動の前にもう少し情報が必要だ

Decompression Trades:Buy ERSTBK 4 01/16/31 (SP) vs FRLBP 4 ⅜ 01/17/30 (NPS)Buy SANTAN 3 ¼ 05/27/32 (SP) vs ACAFP 0 ⅞ 01/14/32 (NPS)Buy DB 3 ¾ 01/15/30 (SP) vs SOCGEN 2 ⅛ 09/27/28 (NPS)

We view Decompression Trades as a key theme for European Banks bonds in a market where we see very tight spreads coupled with growing uncertainties going into H 2- 25 , in particular with a French political risk that should be one of the main headlines in the fall 2025. In that respect , we like three trades mentioned above as they offer the opportunity to 1) gain seniority in the capital stack, 2) improve ratings , 3) lower the sensitivity to French risk . In terms of fundamentals, we looked for major banks in core European countries with credit profiles that are relevant agai...

Iberdrola : €5bn capital raise announcement alongside solid H1-25 results

Solid H1-25 results slightly ahead of expectations / 2025 net profit guidance affirmed . EBITDA reached €8.29bn (slightly above expectations), down 14% on a reported basis, due to a negative base effect (€1.7bn capital gain recorded in H1-24 on Mexican assets disposal ). On a reported basis, it grew 5% YoY. Net debt stood at €5 2 . 7 bn at 30/06/25 , up from €5 1 .7bn at end-24. Management reaffirm ed its n et p rofit g uidance for 2025 of “ d ouble-digit growth” . €5bn capital increase announced . The transaction will support Iberdrola’s intensified investment effort in pow...