Natixis - Financial markets do not expect Joe Biden to win

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Natixis

Patrick Artus

Financial markets do not expect Joe Biden to win

Joe Biden currently leads Donald Trump by around 10 points in polling. Bidenâ€™s economic agenda includes: A doubling of the federal minimum wage; Tax hikes on income, wealth, profits and capital gains; Additional public spending on healthcare, security, education, infrastructure and the energy transition; Curbs on oil and natural gas production. If financial markets expected Biden to win, there would be: A rise in expected inflation; A rise in long-term interest rates; A fall in the equity market; A fall in capital flows to the United States and a depreciation of the dollar. As none of this has happened, one can conclude that financial markets do not believe that Biden will win.

08/07/2020 5 EN

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Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

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Analysts

Patrick Artus

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Financial markets do not expect Joe Biden to win

Long Bono 01/41 vs. Short Bund 05/41

Overview of the Asian covered bond market

Consolidation after the euphoria?

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