Report
Patrick Artus

Fiscal dominance in the euro zone: Who is in a position of strength: Governments or the ECB?

The fact the ECB is keeping interest rates extremely low can be interpreted as “ fiscal dominance ” : as a number of euro-zone countries are not ensuring their fiscal solvency, it is ensured by the central bank. If there is fiscal dominance, who is in a position of strength: governments or the ECB? The ECB is in a position of strength if it can threaten governments with a withdraw al of its monetary support should they fail to reduce their public debt: it will help them deleverage with low interest rates, but they must take advantage of them to become sustainably solvent; Governments are in a position of strength if they know that the ECB will never run the risk of triggering a public debt crisis by raising interest rates, in which case they can continue to conduct an expansionary fiscal policy while remaining permanently solvent thanks to the low interest rates. At present, many euro-zone countries would be fiscally insolvent if the ECB normalised its interest rates: France, Spain, Italy, Belgium. This shows that it is probably governments that are in a position of strength.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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