FOMC Preview : Known Unknowns

With data missing, the Fed must rely on partial signals, market expectations, and its own intuition to steer policy forward . The Fed will decrease its policy rate to an upper bound of 4% at this meeting, the second consecutive meeting with a reduction in policy. We don't expect much of a change from either the official statement or from Powell’s press conference given the lack of data and the unchanged economic outlook. This meeting should lean dovish , though Powell will want to emphasize that the Fed is not on a pre-set course and will want to retain optionality on future meetings .