FOMC Recap: No progress on inflation amid slowing growth

In its March meeting, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) held rates steady at an upper bound of 4.5%, pausing for the second straight meeting after cutting 100bp since September. The official statement noted the increased uncertainty of the economic landscape, clarified by Chair Powell as reflecting a wide range of potential executive branch policies, including tariffs. The dots showed slower growth, higher inflation, and higher unemployment for 2025, but with the expectation that the Fed will cut two times this year, consistent with the December dots. The dots should be read as signaling that the Fed still intends to cut twice despite the higher inflation forecasts, helping to confirm the easing bias. Still, until the data gives a reason to pivot, the Fed is “in no hurry” to move from its current stance.