For inflation to persist in the US or the euro zone, the COVID crisis would have to lead to a lasting decline in labour supply

There may be temporary inflation after the COVID crisis (we look at the situations of the United States and the euro zone) due to the rise in commodity prices (in the broad sense) and the catch-up from the recession period during which companies were unable to raise their prices, but for there to be permanent inflation, there would have to be strong pressure on the labour market, i.e. a marked decline in labour supply (in the participation rate) after the crisis. Such a decline in labour supply could have several causes: Employees who have lost their jobs decide not to return to the labour market after the crisis; Employees have skills that became obsolete or unsuitable after the crisis due to the change in the structure of jobs; The improvement in the generosity of out-of-work income leads employees to prefer inactivity over employment. Are there signs of these developments today? We see hiring difficulties and a fall in the participation rate, in the United States far more than in the euro zone; We see no acceleration in wages; We cannot see that the improvement in social welfare has an impact on the participation rate in the medium term. We can therefore question whether or not the fall in the participation rate in the United States is lasting, while seeing that it has not led to an acceleration in wages so far.