Report
Patrick Artus

Forward guidance in the euro zone; “reverse forward guidance” in the United States?

Forward guidance consists in the central bank guiding economic agents’ interest rate expectations, which allows it to control long-term interest rates. To this end , it announces its intentions regarding short-term interest rates at a long horizon. Forward guidance is clearly in use in the euro zone today: the ECB announces that it will keep interest rates at zero for a long period of time, and financial market participants believe it. But in the United States , there seems to be what looks more like “reverse forward guidance”: the financial markets expect a sharp cut in the Federal Reserve’s interest rates that the Federal Reserve itself has not announced. There will be reverse forward guidance if financial market expectations actually force the Federal Reserve to sharply lower its interest rates to prevent the financial market correction that would arise if it did not do so.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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