Report
Patrick Artus

France: A fall in the return on equity for shareholders in return for an increase in low wages and job creation?

France’s main social problems are well known: wages at the bottom of the distribution are low, even though the minimum wage is high relative to the median wage; the employment rate is abnormally low, which increases inequality ; and there is mass unemployment. For the time being, France relies on public policies and spending to try to correct these problems , involving, in particular: Public transfer payments to low-income earners (guaranteed minimum income, various housing subsidies*): approximately EUR 12 billion for the guaranteed minimum income and EUR 17 billion for housing subsidies; Income top-ups ( activity bonus ) for low- wage earners ( EUR 10 billion ) ; A back-to-school allowance (EUR 2.5 billion); Exemptions from employer social contributions on low wages ( EUR 25 billion ) . But these public mechanisms to support incomes and employment are reaching a limit in terms of their cost for public finances (nearly 3 percentage points of GDP for the benefits outlined above); further, the blanket replacement of companies in the payment of wages is not one of the role s of government. We can imagine another mechanism involving companies and not the government: companies c ould accept a fall in the return on equity for shareholders (RoE, 10% in 2019) either to increase the lowest wages or to create jobs for people locked out of the labour market. A 10% reduction in the RoE of French companies, which would be acceptable to shareholders, would generate 1.4 percentage points of GDP of additional resources, i.e. 5% of the corporate payroll, either to increase low wages or to finance job creation in activities that yield lower returns than those usually required . * Revenu de s olidarité active (g uaranteed minimum income ) Aide p ersonnalisée au l ogement (p ersonalised housing assistance ) Allocation de l ogement f amilial (f amily housing allowance ) Allocation de l ogement s ocial (s ocial housing allowance )
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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