France: Bayrou’s General policy speech: Little details on the budget, some concessions regarding the pension reform

"84% of the French believe that the government will not last the year, and I sometimes wonder where the remaining 16% find the source of their optimism." F. Bayrou during his general policy speech On January 14, François Bayrou delivered his general policy address, outlining several key points that his government want s to address : Macron’s Pension Reform : Prime Minister François Bayrou announced that once the Court of Auditors submits a report on the financial situation of the pension system, social partners will have three months to negotiate an alternative reform. If no agreement is reached, the current reform will remain in effect. Discussions among the social partners are scheduled for Friday 17 January . Budget : Bayrou provided limited details regarding the draft budget law. He indicated that the government plans to revise its GDP growth forecast for 2025 downwards from 1.1% to 0.9%, and the public deficit is now expected to reach 5.4% in 2025 vs. 5.0% in the previous draft budget law . During the Q&A session, he mentioned that the government is considering an “anti-optimization tax on high wealth,” although he offered no further details what this could mean . Additionally, Bayrou announced a 3.3% increase in the national objective for health insurance expenditure (ONDAM), compared to 2.8% in previous PM Barnier’s draft budget law. He also confirmed the financial effort requested from local authorities will be reduced from the € 5 bn planned by the Barnier government to € 2.2 bn by 2025, as was voted during the debates in Parliament prior to the dismissal of the Barnier government . No Confidence Vote : As anticipated, La France Insoumise has introduced a motion of censure, which is set to be held on Thursday, January 16. Within the left coalition (New Popular Front), both The Greens and the Communists have confirmed their support for this no-confidence vote. The position of the Socialists remains unclear. The National Rally has not tabled a motion of censure and appears unlikely to support the one tabled by the left - coalition at this time. Notably, a recent Elabe poll for "Les Echos" indicates that two out of three French citizens believe that, in order to pass the budget, "the opposition must compromise rather than vote in favor of censure."