France: Could changes in the labour market lead to full employment?

Despite a first five-year period disrupted by social crises – the Yellow Vest movement and the strike against pension reform – the COVID-19 pandemic, and more recently Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the evolution and outlook of the French labour market nevertheless seem to have improved. Starting in 2015, the unemployment curve reversed again, and despite the COVID-19 crisis, the unemployment rate fell to 7.1% (mainland France) in the first quarter of 2022, the lowest level since 2008 (see Chart 1 ). Having almost achieved his goal of reducing the unemployment rate to 7%, the newly re-elected President of the Republic now wants to reach full employment by 2027, a goal he considers within reach if the trend observed during his first five-year term continues. In this note, we analyse the change in the labour market between 2015 and 2021, and assess the feasibility of reaching full employment by 2027.