France: How high is the structural (irreducible) unemployment rate?
We begin by examining the future trend in France’s potential growth : w e believe it is heading towards 0.8% per year. Once the unemployment rate reaches the level of the structural unemployment rate, France’s growth will therefore fall to 0.8%. This of course raises the question of the level of France’s structural unemployment rate. The trends in hiring difficulties, job vacancies and wages in France suggest that the structural unemployment rate is higher today than prior to the 2008 crisis (it could be around 8%). However, in the opposite direction, the reforms of taxation, vocational training and unemployment benefits are going to drive down the structural unemployment rate.