France: Is social mobility likely to deteriorate further?

A recent study published by INSEE 1 shows that social mobility in France (measured by the change in income between generations) is low, but not as low as one might have feared. Is there a risk that social mobility will decline in the future? The risk is tied to labour market polarisation: if jobs concentrate at either end (high-skilled, well-paid jobs; low-skilled, poorly paid jobs), social mobility will definitely decline. We then look at the prospects for job creation in the future by occupation type. We see the prospect of increased labour market polarisation, as job vacancies and job creation are likely to concentrate at the two ends over the next 10 years: on the one hand, IT, managers, researchers, healthcare; on the other, cleaning, home assistance, warehouse handling, maintenance. This prospect of increased labour market polarisation points to a further decline in social mobility . 1 A new measure of intergenerational income mobility in France (Une nouvelle mesure de la mobilité intergénérationnelle des revenus en France) , INSEE Analyses, no. 73, 18 May 2022 .