France: Towards a Government Fall on 8th September?

Prime Minister François Bayrou surprisingly announced during a press conference on Monday, 25th August, that he will deliver a general policy speech on 8th September under Article 49.1 of the Constitution. This speech will address the government's responsibilities during an extraordinary session of Parliament. This decision carries significant risks, as the government holds only a relative majority (see Chart 1 ), increasing the likelihood of political fallout. Unlike the motion of censure - which requires an absolute majority of the members of the National Assembly to dismiss the government - the above confidence vote requires a simple majority of the votes cast. If the government does not obtain the confidence of the National Assembly, the Prime Minister must submit the resignation of its government to the President of the Republic (Article 50 of the Constitution) . The confidence vote will focus on the question of “controlling our public finances” and validating the principle of a €43.8 billion budget savings plan. During the press conference, the Prime Minister exhibited some openness regarding the composition of the measures—including an unpopular proposal to remove two public holidays, which is estimated to save close to € 4bn —but remained firm on the required budgetary effort. This vote takes place against a backdrop of strong opposition to the draft budget guidelines presented by Bayrou in mid-July, with a social movement dubbed "Block Everything" planned for 10th September.