France: What would be the level of the public deficit if the 2024 budget were to be rolled over?

In the event of a successful no confidence vote leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Barnier, it seems likely that the 2024 budget will be rolled over , as in Spain where the 2023 budget was renewed in 2024 and could be renewed again in 2025 . Considering our assumption of nominal GDP growth of 2.7% for 2025, the budget deficit would decrease from 6.1% in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025 , meaning more consolidation than in our current estimate of 5.4% and probably more than in a budget incorporating National Rally demands . However, t his scenario remains theoretical, as this budget would probably be amended during the year. On the Social Security budget, we estimate the National Rally claims at around €5bn (~0.3 pp of GDP), with unclear funding. These measures must be added to concessions made by the government on electricity taxes (~€3bn, 0.1 pp of GDP).