Report
Patrick Artus

France: What would be the point of reducing government support and letting wages fall?

For the time being in France, the government has shouldered the lion’s share of the income loss caused by the COVID crisis ( it has been slightly less generous than other OECD countries). But there is now debate in France as to whether the government should reduce its support for companies and wage earners and shift some of the cost of the income loss to them , in particular in the form of a fall in wages. We believe that this would be a bad idea and that the government should continue to bear the full income loss as long as there is one, for example by paying wages in place of companie s : The government bonds being issued are being bought, probably irreversibly, by the ECB. De facto , this makes them cancelled. It would be needless to reduce the public debt in these circumstances; long-term interest rates will remain zero; It would be very untimely to trigger a contraction in demand at this stage of the economic cycle , and it could perpetuate the recession ; Restoring the confidence of consumers so that they do not hoard precautionary savings will require giving them reassurance about the prospect of employment and unemployment.
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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