France: What would be the situation for pensioners if they had had pension funds since the early 1980s?
Pensions in France are managed almost entirely on a pay-as-you-go basis. The return on these pensions depends on growth. From 1982 to today, the real return on pay-as-you-go pensions has been 1.8% per year on average. If pensions in France had been managed on a funded basis, the French would have invested their savings in pension funds invested in equities and bonds. From 1982 to today, the real (inflation-adjusted) return on an equity portfolio has been 11.4% per year, that of a bond portfolio 6.1% per year. A 1 euro contribution (in 2019 euros) to the pension system in 1982 in France therefore currently corresponds to pension assets, still in 2019 euros, of: 1.93 euros for pay-as-you-go pensions ; 21.90 euros for funded pensions, assuming an investment 50% in bonds and 50% in equities. The cost of having had only pay-as-you-go pensions in France for 40 years is therefore considerable.