France’s growth in 2019 will surprise on the upside
We believe that the consensus of forecasters underestimates French growth for 2019, which is likely to surprise on the upside given: The acceleration in wages and the decline in inflation; The still-low interest rates; The increase in the fiscal deficit (increase in transfer payments to households and tax cuts); The small size of industry, when it is cyclical weakness in industry that is weakening economies.