French General elections: New Assembly, same President

On July 18 th , M r s Braun- Pivet (Ensemble, Macron’s party & allies) has been re-elected President of the French National Assembly by 220 votes against 207 for Mr. Chassaigne (left coalition, New Popular Front) and 141 votes for Mr. Chenu (far-right Rassemblement national). The main implications of the votes are: This election confirmed the Hung Parliament with three main blocks . It was a victory on the wire for M r s Brau n- Pivet as she w on only by a small lead in the third-round ballot and failed to get the absolute majority. This election show ed some alliances are possible for a future government , notably with the moderate right : M r s Braun- Pivet won thanks to the decisive support of the MPs from the “ Republic an Right ”. This reinforces our view that the bar is probably too high for a grand coalition, but that some alliances under a minority government are possible. However, such government would remain fragile as it will be vulnerable to a no confidence vote . The left-coalition got a strong score but failed to win. This reinforces the view expressed by President Macron that no political party won the election. Thus, he could more easily appoint a Prime Minister from the center or the right as he has no duty to appoint a Prime Minister from the party which finished first in the General elections . This election did not provide much more clarification : negotiations to form a government will be difficult and the MPs will need to find compromises to prevent a political deadlock , particularly regarding the next budget bill.