French General elections: No absolute majority, but a surprise podium finish

French voters went to the polls again on Sunday 7 th July for the second round of the General elections and the results contained several surprises. The main key points are: As we expected, no political party has obtained an absolute majority (majority threshold: 289 seats). But the final podium is not what we and the polls expected at all : The left-coalition “New Popular Front” surprisingly finished in first place with 171-187 seats (vs. 131 seats in 2022). Ensemble (Macron’s party and allies) get the second position with 152-163 seats , a far better outcome than expected few days ago , even if their score is worse than in 2022 (245 seats). The far-right “Rassemblement National” finished in the third position with 134-152 seats (vs. 89 seats in 2022) , while we and most polls expected a relative majority with at least 190 seats. This podium reflects the success of the “Republican front” strategy against the far-right , as many candidates from the left coalition or “Ensemble” who came in the third position after the first round decided to withdraw. Right parties (Les Républicains “LR” and other right parties) get around 63-68 seats, close to their 2022 score (74 seats). The participation rate was very high , estimated around 67%, as in the first round, and the highest level since 1997. This is key as this legitimates the result and this confirm that there is no large reservoir of far-right votes in France. Among the left-coalition, we noticed the strong score of the socialists (59-65 seats vs. 31 seats in 2022) and the Greens (32-36 seats vs. 23 seats in 2022) relative to the far-left “La France Insoumise” (LFI, 69-75 seats vs. 75 seats in 2022). What’s next? We believe we will see in the coming days some negotiations to form a govern ment coalition from moderate-left (Socialists and Greens) to moderate right (LR and other right parties). Far-left LFI’s participation in such a government seems unlikely, at least for many of them, as they are fierce opponents to E. Macron’s policies and as their leader JL Melenchon indicated tonight, he wants to apply NFP program without concession. We believe that the bar is high for such “Grand coalition” and the risk of political deadlock should not be underestimated. In any case, the next budget, which must be submitted to parliament by 1st October, will be the key compass to gauge the strength of the next government.