French General elections: What scenarios for the second round ?

French people will go to the polls again this Sunday for the second round of the snap General elections . In this report, we propose two simulations of seats for the 2nd round. In our two scenarios, the far-right “ Rassemblement National ” would finish first , but with a relative majority, confirming our baseline scenario of a Hung Parliament. However, our models are based on hypotheses , which are by nature questionable. An absolute majority for the “ R assemblement N ational” , although less likely than last Sunday, cannot be completely ruled out. Other scenarios remain also possible , although less likely, such as a relative majority for the left-wing coalition. If we think the scenario of a hung Parliament would limit the risk of massive fiscal slippage, the next government – whatever its future composition - will face major challenges , starting with the 2025 budget . Projection seats (majority threshold = 289 seats) Source: Natixis