French parliamentary elections: A more polarised national assembly

On Sunday, June 12 and 19, French legislative elections will be held. In each of the 577 constituencies, voters will choose their deputies, their direct representatives who vote on laws in the National Assembly . The campaign, which officially began on Monday, May 30, seems to be generating limited interest among the French, pointing to a relatively low turnout. After his re-election, the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron and his party La République En Marche formed the coalition Ensemble with other parties of the center, and the center-right. For their part, left-wing parties have come together and formed the Nupe s coalition , which is currently leading in the polls. On the extreme right, Rassemblement National (RN) will run independently of Eric Zemmour's party, Recon quê t e . These three large blocs (Nupes, Ensemble, RN) clearly stand out in the polls, reflecting the dynamics of the presidential elections, with a closing gap between Nupes and Ensemble, and the RN not far behind. However, some caution is necessary when looking at the se poll results , mostly because of the mechanics of the legislative elections and the voting system. Although unlikely , it is not impossible that the presidential coalition could lose its absolute majority in the A ssembly , forcing it to move closer to other political parties, particularly Les Républicains . On the other hand, the emergence of a more confrontational opposition is likely as Nupes could triple its number of seats. Th us, Emmanuel Macron is likely to face more difficulties in governing and passing laws in the National Assembly during this new five-year term. That said, a Cohabition government, in which the Prime Minister were to come from a different party than the President still looks unlikely.