Germany, France, Spain, Italy: What explains the growth gaps and the decline in growth in Germany and Italy currently?

F or 2019-2020 , all forecasters are see ing : Virtually zero growth in Italy; Quite weak growth in Germany; Decent growth in France; Quite strong growth in Spain. This hierarchy of growth rates differs from that of the past because growth has become lower in Germany than in France and because Ital ian growth has weakened markedly . Are we able to explain this new hierarchy of growth rates in the large euro-zone countries? We look at: Cost competitiveness and exports; Profitability, interest rates and investment; Real wages; The capacity to create jobs and household income; The household savings rate; The weight and situation of industry. We see that the following determinants explain this new hierarchy of the four large euro-zone countries’ growth rates, which are negative for Germany and Italy : competitiveness and exports (negative for Germany), profits and investment (negative for Italy), employment and household income (negative for Italy), the household savings rate (negative for Germany) and the decline in industry (negative for Germany).