Germany: Merz elected Chancellor but only on second attempt

Merz has been elected today as Federal Chancellor but needed two rounds of votes as he surprisingly failed in the first round. T he dimension of t his failure is historic, as it has never happened before . C hancellors have always been elected in the first round of voting since the end of the second World War up until now. Merz surprisingly fell short of a majority in Parliament in the first ballot … Detailed results indicate that 310 deputies voted in favor in the first ballot , while 316 votes were needed for approval. In addition, 307 MPs voted against, there was 1 invalid vote, 3 abstentions, and 9 MPs did not participate in the vote. However, when combined, all parties except CDU/CSU and SPD account for 302 MPs , suggesting that several members from the proposed coalition voted against Merz. The vote was secret, so we do not know which members of the SPD or CDU/CSU voted against their coalition, and a fter this first vote , each party was blaming the other one . However, it seems that some deputies of each party could have taken the initiative. On the SPD side, many believe that Merz is not a desirable chancellor, and he never ha d a unanimous support, even within his own camp. Meanwhile, the CDU/CSU's declining intention vote in favor of the AfD registered by recent polls since the elections indicates a relative dissatisfaction among the electoral base following the elections (see chart 1 ) . Merz has faced significant criticism from within his own party for making too many concessions to the Greens and the SPD during negotiations regarding the amendment of the debt brake and the establishment of the Infrastructure Fund. The internal blame game within his own party and that of his coalition partner is likely to severely undermine the trust and stability of this new coalition. … But Merz secured a majority in second try After a unanimous decision to shorten the deadline of the organization of a new ballot —which required only a two-third majority to be shortened—the CDU leader received 325 yes votes in a second round of voting that took place this afternoon. A significant blow for Merz and the coalition The positive outcome of this vote prevents the new coalition from entering a very complicated political crisis, but it is a significant blow for Merz, and the future coalition will emerge greatly weakened from this episode. The way this will be managed by both parties will need to be closely monitored.