Germany will change its mind on its fiscal policy

The lack of growth in Germany may be long-lasting, as it is due to structural causes (decline in traditional industry, weak global trade, deteriorating cost competitiveness). Unemployment will then rise in Germany. This is currently being avoided by overstaffing in companies that accept a sharp fall in their productivity, which cannot be a lasting equilibrium. The lack of growth and the rise in unemployment will force the German government - despite its hesitations and the constitutional obstacles - to conduct a more expansionary fiscal policy , leading to: A small rise in euro-zone long-term interest rates, unless the ECB completely finances this more expansionary fiscal policy; A reduction in the euro zone's external surplus, and financing problems for the United States.