Report
Patrick Artus

Germany's external surplus is not due to a real undervaluation of the exchange rate

It is often claimed that Germany's exchange rate is massively undervalued, which, in terms of fixed exchange rates (in the euro zone), means that production costs are too low in Germany. The remedy would then be a very rapid rise in wages in Germany, the argument being that Germany has a very large external surplus. But this analysis is erroneous. The reasons are as follows: Germany has high production costs that are currently leading to export market share losses; in reality, its exchange rate is therefore now overvalued in real terms; Germany's external surplus stems from the abnormally high level of savings among all economic agents in the country: companies, households, government . What should be corrected in Germany is therefore the national savings rate, not a real undervaluation of the exchange rate.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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