Germany's situation after the coronavirus crisis

It is often stated that since Germany has managed the coronavirus crisis well, in particular thanks to the quality of its health system and the fact that it maintains a strong industrial base and had budget surpluses prior to the crisis, it will emerge strengthened from this crisis. We believe that, on the contrary, Germany will be weakened: If there is industrial reshoring, Germany will benefit less than more deindustrialised countries or lower-cost countries in the euro zone; Moreover, the expected weakness of global trade and demand for durable goods (e.g. cars) will have very negative impacts on Germany.