Global outlook: the Union without the Kingdom

Persistent tensions between the United States and China, an endless Brexit saga, a slowdown in world trade ... Uncertainties surrounding global economic dynamics will weigh on overall growth in the remainder of 2019 and 2020. We expose here our global central scenario and the evolution that we anticipate in the main regions of the world. It is based on the strong assumption of a UK exit from the EU without a withdrawal agreement. In particular , we expect : a recession in the United Kingdom and a slowdown of growth in the euro zone three Fed rate cuts of 25 bps in July, September and December 2019 a cut in the deposit rate by the ECB by 10bps in September 2019 a slowdown in Asian growth, with the need for China to take stronger expansionary measures the risk of a technical recession in Japan due to the planned increase in VAT a growth slowdown for most Latin American countries, due to internal as well as external factors