Report
Patrick Artus

Global potential growth becoming low: What consequences?

As a result of population ageing, the decline in productivity gains and the effect of crises and recessions, global potential growth is becoming increasingly low, around 2.1% per year in the decade 2020 against 4.2% in the decade 2000 and 2.9% in the decade 2010. What are the consequences of low global potential growth? Monetary policies will remain expansionary, given the high debt level and central banks' new strategies; if real interest rates have to be much lower than real growth, they will be (on average for the world) zero or negative; this will bring about a conflict in the determination of asset prices; Global energy consumption will decrease as a trend and so will CO 2 emissions; the world has probably passed "peak oil" (the peak of oil consumption); Many conflicts may arise, since the "global income cake" will hardly increase: between generations, between rich and poor countries, between wage earners and companies.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch