Rates Weekly: A tailwind for rates markets

EUR rates:Recap of the week:   European rates remained supported by a risk-averse backdrop, with the rally clearly led by the long end while the front end eased only modestly. Cross-asset derisking continued to drive term-premium compression, while euro sovereign supply was absorbed smoothly and spreads stayed stable to slightly tighter, with France outperforming. Front-end rates remain anchored by a patient ECB and are additionally supported by easing energy-inflation risks after OPEC supply headlines, reinforcing our long positioning on the 2y Schatz.Tactical view: The Bund is expected to tr...

Noise vs Trend - Our weekly cross-asset views

The markets were nervous again this week with US macro and AI the key themes at the forefront. US macro news flow is not crystal clear at this stage with surprising low retail sales pointing to deceleration vs strong headline NFP (although job creation is mainly concentrated in 2 service sectors). No big news on the AI theme but renewed fears that the “free cash flow” edge of the tech sector is fading, leading to another “AI fear trade Thursday” (NDX -2%) and flight to quality on bonds.Week-to-date and before today’s CPI, US risk assets underperform non-US risk assets, govies bull flatten, UST...

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