Gradual easing of restrictions in France: What impact on activity?

How has activity reacted to the gradual easing of restrictions initiated in early May, with the end of domestic travel restrictions on 3 May and the partial reopening of some activities on 19 May? Mobility: the lifting of domestic travel restrictions , not surprisingly, led to a rebound in mobility (Google Mobility Report), which has been at above-normal levels since 19 May (+5.8%). Electricity: electricity consumption has remained in line with the levels of a “normal” year. Some Google Trends indicate a sharp rebound in searches for leisure, entertainment, restaurants, hotels and travel. We have built a synthetic index to illustrate this trend, which points to a rapid catch-up in consumer spending in these sectors. Our activity trackers based on Google Trends returned to positive territory in the last two weeks of May, that is they slightly exceeded their benchmark level (2019), suggesting a normalisation of activity. Over a four-week trend, however, the trajectory is less clear. The last few weeks seem to mark a turning point in the normalisation of French economic activity, with a vigorous catch-up taking shape in the sectors shut down from 30 October 2020 to 19 May 2021. The Q1 GDP figures should probably be interpreted in this context, as a strong rebound of activity is likely in Q2.