Growth in 2022: Reasons to be pessimistic, reasons to be optimistic

Growth in 2022 is difficult to predict (we look at the situations of the United States and the euro zone), as a number of factors give reason for pessimism, while other s give reason for optimism. The following give reason for pessimism: The sharp reduction in structural fiscal deficits despite the stimulus or investment plans; High energy prices (even if they fall from the autumn 2021 level), the resulting loss of purchasing power for employees; Recruitment difficulties for companies, if they are indeed holding back employment; The slowdown in growth in China. On the contrary, the following give reason for optimism: The persistently expansionary monetary policies; The possibility (which is not occurring now ) that part of the forced savings accumulated during the COVID crisis will eventually be consumed; The sound financial situation of companies , which facilitates investment. The greatest source of uncertainty is probably the extent to which the forced savings accumulated during the COVID will be consumed.