Growth outlook: 2022 poses very different questions to 2023

In 2022, the level of GDP will still be lower than the level of potential GDP in the United States and the euro zone; it is expected to catch up with it by the end of 2022. This means that the question of growth in 2022 will be very different to that in 2023: In 2022, the context will still be one of cyclical catch-up. Growth will be particularly influenced by changes in fiscal deficits and interest rates, by households’ use of their excess savings and by companies’ investment profile; In 2023, growth will be linked to potential growth. The key question will then be what effect the COVID crisis has had on productivity gains (have they been slowed by the loss of investment and skills or increased by the digitalisation of the economy and public investment policies?) and participation rates.