Report
Patrick Artus

Has the fiscal deficit reduced private investment?

We look at the world, the OECD, the euro zone and France. What are the current theories? The crowding-out theory: fiscal deficits have taken an excessive share of private savings, which has reduced private sector investment; The private savings surplus theory: private sector savings have increased significantly, and it was then necessary to increase the fiscal deficit in order to avoid private sector over-investment. If the crowding-out theory is correct, there is a negative correlation between the fiscal deficit (expressed as a positive figure) and private sector investment, and a negative correlation between the fiscal deficit and the current account balance. If the private savings surplus theory is correct, there is a positive correlation between private savings, the fiscal deficit, private sector investment and the current account balance. An observation of actual developments shows major differences between regions according to this approach: For the world and the OECD, a crowding-out regime appeared from 2010 to 2020; For the euro zone, on the contrary, a private savings surplus regime appeared from 2010 to 2020; France has at all times bee n in a regime of slight crowding-out.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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