Has the fiscal deficit reduced private investment?
We look at the world, the OECD, the euro zone and France. What are the current theories? The crowding-out theory: fiscal deficits have taken an excessive share of private savings, which has reduced private sector investment; The private savings surplus theory: private sector savings have increased significantly, and it was then necessary to increase the fiscal deficit in order to avoid private sector over-investment. If the crowding-out theory is correct, there is a negative correlation between the fiscal deficit (expressed as a positive figure) and private sector investment, and a negative correlation between the fiscal deficit and the current account balance. If the private savings surplus theory is correct, there is a positive correlation between private savings, the fiscal deficit, private sector investment and the current account balance. An observation of actual developments shows major differences between regions according to this approach: For the world and the OECD, a crowding-out regime appeared from 2010 to 2020; For the euro zone, on the contrary, a private savings surplus regime appeared from 2010 to 2020; France has at all times bee n in a regime of slight crowding-out.