Have central banks always "delivered" the interest rate movements that financial markets expected? Not at all

Financial markets currently expect the Federal R e serve to cut interest rates sharply and the ECB to keep interest rates at zero or negative, at the current level. It is often suggested that central banks are forced to "deliver" the interest rate movements that financial markets have expected to avoid "disappointing" the markets. Is that the case for the Federal R e serve and the ECB? We show that in the United States and the euro zone, short-term interest rate expectations lag and do not precede actual interest rates: the market’s interest rates expectations absolutely do not steer central banks’ decisions.