High frequency indicators: health and economic situation in Europe

Since October, Europe has been facing a new wave of epidemics that has led many countries to tighten health constraints. In this report we present an overview of the health situation and we try to provide an initial overview of the impact of this new wave on activity variables via alternative data. The arrival of the new Omicron variant constitutes an additional risk, but more scientific data will have to be awaited to better assess the risks it entails . The Delta wave did not spare the euro zone, although the epidemic dynamics were different depending on the country. Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and Denmark have seen the number of cases increase exponentially to higher levels than those reached in previous waves. In the other countries, France, Italy and Spain, the acceleration in contamination was later, starting in early November and strengthening in the second half of the month. This gap can also be seen in hospital tensions with a difficult situation in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and Austria. Faced with this new wave, restrictions ha ve been significantly tightened in the most affected countries, up to the curfew (Netherlands) or even partial (affecting the unvaccinated) or strict lockdown (Austria for twenty days from 22 November until 11 December. In France, the public authorities have so far made the choice of information and encouragement for vaccination with now the recall campaign (third dose) as a hobby horse. Additional measures will be announced today . The tightening of restrictions has a significant impact on mobility in the countries concerned. It should also be noted that in countries not affected by the sharp tightening of restrictions, the population has started to adapt to the health situation with a "spontaneous" reduction in mobility since early November (Italy, Spain, France from mid-November). Lastly, high-frequency data also makes it possible to assess the first impacts of this Delta wave on the business. The first weekly estimates based on Google Trends suggest a sharp reversal in household consumption in Germany over the last few weeks, while it seems to have remained on an upward trend in France.