Report
Patrick Artus

High public debt in euro-zone countries: Is the ECB going to eliminate market discipline?

Since euro-zone countries have high public debt ratios, there should be market discipline, i.e. when an increase in the fiscal deficit very rapidly triggers a rise in long-term interest rates. But the ECB’s very expansionary monetary policy limits rises in government bond yields, as can be seen currently for Italy: interest rates on the core countries’ bonds are becom ing very low (negative), investors are, accordingly , switch i n g to bonds issued by the peripheral countries, and the interest rates on these bonds remain low whatever happens with their fiscal policy. If the ECB eliminates market discipline on euro-zone government bonds, it gives the member countries their budgetary freedom back, even those that have very high public debt ratios. This means that the ECB is driving euro-zone countries to conduct expansionary fiscal policies, not only by pushing down risk-free interest rates, but also by eliminating market discipline: there is no longer any obstacle to a limitless rise in public debt ratios.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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