High public debt in euro-zone countries: Is the ECB going to eliminate market discipline?
Since euro-zone countries have high public debt ratios, there should be market discipline, i.e. when an increase in the fiscal deficit very rapidly triggers a rise in long-term interest rates. But the ECB’s very expansionary monetary policy limits rises in government bond yields, as can be seen currently for Italy: interest rates on the core countries’ bonds are becom ing very low (negative), investors are, accordingly , switch i n g to bonds issued by the peripheral countries, and the interest rates on these bonds remain low whatever happens with their fiscal policy. If the ECB eliminates market discipline on euro-zone government bonds, it gives the member countries their budgetary freedom back, even those that have very high public debt ratios. This means that the ECB is driving euro-zone countries to conduct expansionary fiscal policies, not only by pushing down risk-free interest rates, but also by eliminating market discipline: there is no longer any obstacle to a limitless rise in public debt ratios.