January Jobs Recap: Ammo for the Hawks – cuts delayed, not cuts denied

The employment report for January quelled fears about a job market that was quickly softening, following last week’s dour job opening and initial jobless claim figures. Payroll gains far exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to just under 4.3% from 4. 4 % in December . The improvement in the unemployment rate was accompanied by an increase in the labor force participation rate, signaling that the decline was real and not a result of a falling job force. While this print does change our near-term forecast – we no longer are calling for a cut in March – we still think that t...

[Presentation] Where do we stand with RMB internationalization? The role of capital flows, Hong Kong and yuan appreciation

January CPI Preview

The January CPI report should provide a cleaner reading of price developments as compared to the prior two, which included distortions from the October/November government shutdown. Although this CPI is delayed due to the most recent mini-shutdown, data collection was not inhibited. We estimate that core CPI will rise 0.31% for January, which would bring the y/y rate to 2.5%. We expect core goods prices to normalize after a curiously low (flat) reading in December. Core goods price growth has generally been higher since “Liberation Day” and we think a reversion to that trend is likely. Despi...