Hospital risks and household behaviour – What real-time indicators say #19

Medical consultations and hospitalisations : in addition to the trend in hospital data in France, we also look at medical consultations (the SOS Médecins emergency service) prior to hospitalization. While the number of SOS Médecins consultations for suspected COVID-19 remains high, the trend over the past fortnight is (moderately) reassuring. After peaking in early September in the departments of Bouches-du-Rhône and Rhône, the rate of medical consultations has fallen significantly, while remaining at higher levels than the national average. In Paris, after rising rapidly in early September, the consultation rate has stabilised over the past fortnight, also at levels higher than the national average. A leading indicator of hospitalisation figures, medical consultations point to a timid improvement that is starting to have an impact on the number of new hospitalisations. Regional hospital data point to a certain stabilisation in the number of new hospitalisations. Mobility and hospitalisations : the machine learning models updated this week for the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur and Ile-de-France regions also suggest that the trend of recent days is likely to be confirmed. “Stop and go” restrictions : these trends, combined with the need to “learn to live with the virus”, seem to justify the government’s latest announcements. As Paris has now been placed on maximum alert, it has the same level of restrictions as Aix-Marseille. For the time being, public health constraints (restrictions index) remain relatively moderate in France and the consequences for activity seem limited. Electricity consumption (RTE) since September has remained in line with 2019 levels. .