How are oil- and natural gas-producing countries using the increase in their external surpluses?
Countries that produce (export) oil and natural gas are now receiving a significant increase in income (Russia is of course a special case, given the fallout from the war in Ukraine). How might they use it? Increase their domestic demand (consumption or investment), which will recycle their additional surpluses mainly to China and OECD countries; Increase their demand for financial assets (especially foreign exchange reserves). The question then concerns the nationality of the financial assets demand ed by oil- and natural gas-exporting countries compared with the nationality of oil and natural gas buyers. If, for example, dollar-denominated financial assets are in demand at a time when the United States hardly buys any more oil and gas, the dollar will inevitably appreciate. We see: The low propensity of oil-producing countries to import their trade surpluses; No accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by OPEC countries; Significant accumulation of private financial assets.
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Natixis
Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.