How can a country’s solvency be assessed? An application to the case of France

A country’s solvency is generally analysed based on the conditions of sustainability of the public debt (is the fiscal deficit lower than that which stabilises the public debt ratio?). But this analysis is insufficient, and must be completed by analyses of: The use (more or less efficient, productive) that has been made of the public debt; if it has financed efficient public capital, it generates additional income that improves solvency; this is not the case in France; The sustainability of the primary fiscal surplus that is implemented: a high primary fiscal surplus can ensure fiscal solvency, but eventually prove to be impossible to maintain in the long term (since it requires a rise in the tax burden and/or public spending cuts). The problem in France is the very high level of the tax burden; The resilience of fiscal solvency to shocks: declining growth, rising interest rates; in the latter case (interest rates), the problem is that central bank behaviour must be predicted. A small decline in growth or a quite small rise in interest rates would wipe out fiscal solvency in France.