Report
Patrick Artus

How can France stay “afloat” despite its major structural problems?

France’s severe structural problems are well known: Low labour force skills and poor quality of the education system; Low level of capital modernisation by companies, and therefore low productivity gains; A tax system that discourages employment, which contributes to the low employment rate; Poor cost competitiveness, deindustrialisation. Despite these significant structural problems, France is able to maintain "decent" growth, which is for example not the case with Italy or Germany. How is France able to stay “afloat”? Thanks to : A few buoyant industries (for example aeronautics-space, pharmaceuticals, luxury); A constantly expansionary fiscal policy; The increase in private sector debt; The capacity to create many unskilled jobs in consumer services; Real wage increases that outpace productivity growth, without this affecting corporate profitability too much thanks to the fall in interest rates. Is France going to stay "afloat"? Yes, as long as the fiscal deficit persists and interest rates remain very low, and also thanks to structural factors (buoyant sectors, ability to create jobs in services).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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